2024 prediction results

On the 23rd of october, the online event took place at which the students' predictions for the election outcome in their assigned states were presented. Mark Rozell (George Mazon University) introduced the topic by presenting the electoral college election results in 2016 and 2020 and identified important political issues that could influence the election results in specific states this time.

screenshot from ZOOM meeting with Mark Rozell

Screenshot ZOOM

Afterwards, Professor Torben Schmidt presented the students' predictions and Sina Werner coloured  the online map of 270towin state by state. Mark Rozell commented on the students' results: while he thought most of the predictions were realistic, he was a little more sceptical about the predictions that Harris would clearly win swing states such as Arizona or Pennsylvania. He explained that the results in such swing states are likely to be much closer. Several classes had made their predictions for each state and in the case of Georgia and Michigan there was a stalemate. These two states could not be clearly assigned because an equal number of classes predicted a Republican or Democratic victory. Nevertheless, the result was clear:

Kamala Harris will win the election with 272 electoral votes

screenshot from 270towin with the students prediction

map from https://www.270towin.com/